Predicting Maritime Risk with Bayesian Intelligence

RISE is exploring new frontiers in predictive risk assessment together with The Swedish Club, a leading maritime insurance company. Using Bayesian statistical modelling, the team can now estimate both the likelihood and the potential cost of maritime accidents across entire ship fleets.

The Challenge

Accidents at sea are, by nature, rare and unpredictable — which makes traditional data-hungry machine learning approaches unfeasible. Bayesian modelling offers a powerful alternative. It embraces uncertainty rather than being hampered by it, updating its predictions continuously as new information becomes available.

The Approach

Trained on historical insurance data that link vessel characteristics with incident frequencies, the model produces dynamic risk profiles for individual ships.

The Outcome

The result: more accurate and transparent risk assessments, fairer premiums, and a clearer understanding of the factors that drive maritime safety.

A step toward a safer, more predictable future at sea — powered by AI that learns from uncertainty.